Since the devastating March 28th earthquake that killed over 3,600 people in Myanmar, the military government has continued its campaign of airstrikes across the country, including in the regions hardest hit by the quake. Despite agreeing to a ceasefire to allow aid to reach victims, the regime has launched 243 attacks since the disaster, including 171 airstrikes. As a result, survivors have faced continued bombing, forced military conscription, denial of aid, mass abductions, and the destruction of entire villages.
At first, the junta blocked all foreign aid teams from entering the country, demanding cash instead. The government-in-exile, along with cross-border aid teams and Burmese civil society organizations, urged the international community not to give cash to the junta, warning it would be misappropriated and never reach earthquake victims. Instead, donors were encouraged to send aid through ethnic networks, small faith-based organizations, and the Jesuits, who devised a complex workaround to channel donations into Myanmar via the Philippines.
Eventually, the junta allowed large international aid organizations to deploy teams, but only to Naypyidaw (the junta’s capital) and other junta-controlled areas, while continuing to deny aid access to resistance-held regions, which its air force continued to bomb.
Volker Türk, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, issued a statement saying, “Instead of further futile investment in military force, the focus must be on the restoration of democracy and the rule of law in Myanmar.” However, neither the UN, nor the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), to which Myanmar belongs, nor any foreign government has made any serious attempt to oust the junta or compel it to hold free elections. Nor has the UN challenged the junta’s authority by sending aid teams into areas controlled by pro-democracy forces.
With no help from outside, the people of Burma continued to rely on themselves, as they have for the past four years since volunteers dug the wounded and dead out of the rubble with their bare hands, while the army swooped in, forcibly conscripting young people. Now, many families have not only lost loved ones in the earthquake and subsequent airstrikes, but have also lost sons and daughters who were forced into uniform and will be deployed in combat, killing innocent civilians and pro-democracy forces.
Since seizing control of the country in a 2021 coup, the Burma army has launched over 2,000 airstrikes, most of them targeting civilians. Meanwhile, the UN is doing absolutely nothing. ASEAN, despite having a combined military strength many times greater than Burma’s junta, is doing nothing. China and Russia continue to supply the regime with jet fuel, weapons, drones, munitions, and aircraft. And the international community is doing nothing to stop them.
Despite the junta’s air superiority, resistance forces, who have no aircraft, have been gaining ground. In May, resistance forces launched major offensives. The Karen army captured the key Htee Khee border crossing and multiple junta camps in Pa’an and Dooplaya Districts, killing dozens of troops and sabotaging key bridges and railways. In Arakan State (Rakhine State), the Arakan Army seized a camp near Kyauk Phyu and surrounded junta troops near Chinese-backed infrastructure.
Arakan State holds major strategic value for China due to its role in the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. The region is home to the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port and the terminus of twin oil and gas pipelines that run to China’s Yunnan Province, critical infrastructure that allows China to bypass the Strait of Malacca. Beijing is determined to secure an alternative to the strait, which would likely be blocked by the U.S. Navy in the event of a war over Taiwan. Control over Arakan also affects China’s investments in special economic zones and trade routes central to its Belt and Road Initiative.
Any instability in Rakhine directly threatens China’s energy security and long-term regional ambitions. Consequently, China has been focused on brokering ceasefires and reducing fighting in the state. More recently, Beijing signed a memorandum of understanding with the Myanmar regime to deploy Chinese armed security companies, which are believed to be headed for Arakan State to protect key infrastructure and enforce stability in areas vital to China’s strategic interests.
In Mandalay Region’s Nganzon Township, one of the areas hardest hit by the earthquake, local People’s Defense Force (PDF) units killed 20 junta troops in a minefield ambush on May 8. Resistance fighters in Chin State have cleared over 500 landmines in Falam, allowing some civilians to begin returning. Meanwhile, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) captured over 200 junta soldiers near Banmaw, killed 40 more in a May 6 counteroffensive near Hpakant, and repelled efforts to retake jade-rich territory.
Kachin, Chin, and Arakan are now the three states where government forces have been largely pushed out, with only the state capitals and a few urban areas and townships still under junta control. All three may become fully liberated by the end of the year.
Despite the success of resistance forces, the junta continues its assaults. On May 8, junta jets bombed a monastery sheltering 400 civilians, killing 15 and injuring more than 30. In Karenni State, resistance forces reported toxic gas attacks near the city of Mobye and possible water contamination. Similar allegations were made in July 2024, when Karenni fighters in Hpasawng Township claimed the Tatmadaw had used poisoned gas during clashes, causing symptoms such as dizziness among those exposed.
Independent examination of the alleged gas projectiles and canisters suggests that the Burma military is deploying toxic industrial chemicals, such as aluminum phosphide, not classified as weapons under international law, but still capable of causing serious illness. These substances are reportedly delivered via drones or grenade launchers, and exposure has resulted in symptoms including vomiting, dizziness, and respiratory distress.
In Mandalay, the junta retaliated for recent battlefield losses by burning down a village of 2,000 people. They also continued mass forced recruitment, abducting nearly 200 youths in Wundwin, Mandalay Region, on May 2, and using the May 6 earthquake aftershock in Yangon as cover to seize more young men.
All the world would have to do to bring the end of this war within reach is effectively cut off 100% of the junta’s jet fuel and its shipments of munitions from China and Russia. Once the planes are grounded, resistance forces would be able to hold the ground they take, push the junta out of the ethnic states, and isolate the generals in Naypyidaw. This strategy, combined with extending recognition to the National Unity Government (NUG) in exile, would cost no money, require no foreign lives, and would not represent an escalation. But it would save lives and help move the country toward establishing a federal republic or democratic confederation, which is what the majority of people want.
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